Antoninska kuga – prva pandemija u europskoj povijesti?

Scientific paper - Original scientific paper

• Title (english): The Antonine Plague: the First Pandemic in European History? (Summary)
• Author: Igor Krnjeta
• Author's institution: University of Zagreb; Faculty of Humanities and Social Sciences; (Department of History)
• Scientific / art field, discipline and subdiscipline: HUMANISTIC SCIENCES; History

Abstract (croatian)

U radu se analizira može li se na temelju epidemioloških kriterija preko kojih se
određuju pandemije (geografska rasprostranjenost, pokretljivosti bolesti, visoke
stope napada i eksplozivno širenje patogena, minimalni imunitet populacije i novitet patogena, zaražljivost te visoke stope smrtnosti) odrediti je li antoninska kuga
(165. – cca. 190) prvi pandemijski događaj koji je pogodio Europu. Isti kriteriji
primijenjeni su i pri analizi ranijih izbijanja bolesti na koje se može gledati kao na
pandemije (bubonska kuga u prapovijesnoj Europi, Tukididova kuga i niz pošasti
koje su pogodile rimski svijet prije antoninske kuge). Rezultati istraživanja ukazuju
na to da je antoninska kuga prva dokaziva europska pandemija.

Abstract (english)

The goal of this paper was to examine whether we can refer to the Antonine
Plague, which ravaged the Roman Empire between 165 and approximately 190
AD, as the first pandemic in European history. The methodology employed to
analyse the pandemic character of the aforementioned plague was taken from the
epidemiological criteria which were established to differentiate epidemics from
pandemics. The criteria for determining whether a disease outbreak can be labelled
a pandemic are: wide geographic scope, disease movement, high attack rates
and explosiveness, minimal population immunity and novelty, contagiousness,
and finally, severity. Next, all of these criteria were tested by analysing ancient
sources, as well as the results of historiographic and scientific research in order
to ascertain if any of them might be used as evidence for the verification of each
separate criterion. Besides the Antonine Plague, this analysis was also applied to
two historical disease outbreaks which may also be viewed as pandemics. These
were the possible Late Neolithic/Early Bronze Age bubonic plague pandemic and
the Plague of Athens. A brief survey of all currently known diseases which struck
the Roman world is also presented. The conclusion which emerges based on an
evaluation of the aforementioned criteria in the light of ancient sources and the
results of modern biological sciences is that the Antonine Plague can be dubbed
the first clearly attested pandemic in European history with reasonable confidence,
while all of the earlier analysed examples were probably semi-connected epidemic
outbreaks. This characterization has been chosen for two reasons. The first pertains
to the fact that we are faced with a substantial lack of sources for earlier examples,
and therefore cannot properly ascertain whether these occurrences truly were
pandemics. The second reason why these disease outbreaks cannot, to the best of
our current knowledge, be defined as pandemics is linked to the criterion of wide
geographic extent, but also to the lack of human-built infrastructure which abets
with the spread of highly virulent pathogens.

• Keywords (croatian): antoninska kuga; povijest medicine; historijska epidemiologija; Marko Aurelije; pandemija; povijest bolesti; Rimsko Carstvo
• Keywords (english): Antonine Plague; history of medicine; historical epidemiology; Marcus Aurelius; pandemic; disease history; Roman Empire
• Language: croatian
• Publication type: Scientific paper - Original scientific paper
• Publication status: Published
• Peer review: Peer review
• Publication version: Published version
• Journal title: Radovi Zavoda za hrvatsku povijest Filozofskoga fakulteta Sveučilišta u Zagrebu : Radovi Zavoda za hrvatsku povijest Filozofskoga fakulteta Sveučilišta u Zagrebu
• Numbering: vol. 53, no. 1, pp. 47-78
• p-ISSN: 0353-295X
• e-ISSN: 1849-0344
• DOI: https://doi.org/10.17234/RadoviZHP.53.1
• URN:NBN: urn:nbn:hr:131:245467
• Publication: 2021
• Document URL: https://hrcak.srce.hr/274780
• Type of resource: Text
• Access conditions: Open access
• Created on: 2022-05-03 09:03:09